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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-16 10:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 830 WTNT43 KNHC 160845 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The structure of the area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina has seemingly become less organized during the past few hours. Proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the center has not become well defined. The associated deep convection has a generally linear orientation and has been displaced farther to the north and east of the center due to strong upper-level winds. Lastly, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still measured a 2-3 degree Celsius temperature difference at 850 mb from north to south, indicating that the frontal boundary is diffuse but not totally gone. Therefore, the low is still not a tropical or subtropical cyclone. That said, the plane measured a peak wind of 54 kt at 6000 ft in the convection well northeast of the center, suggesting that the current intensity is about 45 kt. The low is drifting northwestward (325 degrees) at 3 kt, gradually approaching the South Carolina coast. A faster motion toward the northwest is expected to occur today as the low moves between mid-level high pressure over the northeastern U.S. and a trough over the southeastern U.S. The NHC track forecast shows the low crossing the coast later this afternoon, which is shown by most of the track models. The GFS remains the notable outlier since it initialized the low too far to the northwest and consequently has it crossing the coast around sunrise. After moving inland, the low is expected to continue moving slowly northwestward and then northward over the Carolinas through Wednesday. The new track forecast has been nudged westward from the previous forecast, although there is a modest amount of uncertainty given the ill-defined nature of the center. The chances of the system becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone may be starting to decrease given the current structure, and since it only has another 12 hours or so before moving inland. Most of the intensity guidance also suggests that the maximum winds should gradually decrease as the low approaches the coast, although tropical-storm-force winds are still expected to occur within the warning areas today. Further weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it will likely dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area through this evening. 2. The system will bring the potential for locally considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across southeast North Carolina and northeast South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. 3. Coastal flooding and high surf are likely along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast over the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1800Z 33.0N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0600Z 33.7N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 34.5N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 35.2N 81.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 35.7N 81.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024)
2024-09-16 10:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.4, -78.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-16 10:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 78.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) were recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics