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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Graphics
2024-09-16 04:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:41:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:41:40 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-16 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160241 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a better look at the system's structure. It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern United States. There is general agreement on this track in the models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the ECMWF model. The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast. Key Messages: 1. An area of low pressure off the southeastern U.S. coast is expected to bring impacts from tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning tonight through tomorrow night. 3. The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-16 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GORDON BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 15 the center of Gordon was located near 19.0, -46.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics