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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 2
2024-09-16 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 874 WTNT33 KNHC 160239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 77.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 77.9 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm overnight or tomorrow morning, and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning late tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall with isolated totals near 8 inches across northern and northeast portions of South Carolina along with the North Carolina Coastal Plain. Across the rest of North Carolina and much of Virginia, the Potential Tropical Cyclone will bring 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals near 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to isolated to scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur Monday across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 19
2024-09-16 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160235 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 15 2024 Gordon is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone tonight. While the low-level circulation continues to be well-defined, the convection associated with this circulation is meager, and barely meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Subjective and objective estimates continue to decrease this evening, and the initial intensity is set to 25 kt this advisory. The tropical depression continues to move south of due west, estimated at 260/6 kt. This motion should continue for the next day or so as the shallow cyclone is primarily steered by a low to mid-level ridge positioned to its west-northwest. Thereafter, a significant weakness in this steering flow is forecast to develop, related to a non-tropical low expected to drop equatorward towards Gordon. This steering change is expected to cause the tropical cyclone to first slow its forward motion, and then gradually turn poleward, moving north-northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and faster compared to the previous one, and the NHC track is once again nudged a bit more right and faster compared to the prior advisory. Gordon is struggling mightily against very dry mid-level air, and this environment is unlikely to change much over the next few days. In fact, it would not be surprising to see Gordon become a remnant low at any time if convection does not soon return in a more prominent way near the center. After 48 h, the environment is forecast to begin moistening some while vertical wind shear is expected to be fairly low, providing an opportunity for Gordon to re-intensify, presuming there is enough of a system left to take advantage of the improving environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is not much different from the prior one aside from the weaker initial intensity, and assumes Gordon will survive in the short-term, which is not a forgone conclusion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.0N 46.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 18.9N 47.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 19.0N 48.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 19.3N 49.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 19.5N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1200Z 20.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 20.8N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 23.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics
2024-09-16 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 02:34:39 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics