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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-09-16 10:46:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 742 FONT13 KNHC 160845 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 9 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 31 2(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 34 42 3(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 27 19(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) COLUMBIA SC 34 3 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 78 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) LITTLE RIVER 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 83 2(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MYRTLE BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 91 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CHARLESTON SC 34 41 5(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 12 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082024)
2024-09-16 10:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Eight was located near 32.4, -78.3 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-16 10:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 160845 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 78.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster motion toward the northwest is expected today and Tuesday, followed by a gradual turn toward the north by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, and the low still has a chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm. Weakening is forecast after the system moves inland, and it is likely to dissipate over the Carolinas by late Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 40 mph (65 km/h) were recently reported at Cape Lookout, North Carolina. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC... 1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC... 1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes may occur through this evening across the eastern Carolinas. SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics