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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-09-16 22:36:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 162036 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082024 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FAYETTEVILLE 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) FLORENCE SC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 22
2024-09-16 22:33:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 281 WTNT42 KNHC 162033 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 Gordon is producing only a few sporadic bursts of deep convection, mainly over the southern and eastern portion of its circulation. The vertical wind shear does not appear to be very strong at this time, as evidenced by the relatively slow motions of the cirrus clouds over the system. Since the cyclone is situated over a warm ocean, the suppression of convection is probably due to a stable air mass and/or dry air. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt in accordance with an objective estimate of 32 kt from UW-CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak Current Intensity number of 30 kt from TAFB. Gordon continues to move slowly westward with a current motion estimate of 270/5 kt. A high pressure area that was north of the system over the past couple of days is shifting westward, and being replaced by a mid-level trough within the next day or two. Also, there is a frontal cyclone located about 10 degrees to the north of Gordon. This feature, along with the trough, should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Although Gordon is expected to at least briefly interact with the frontal wave, the global model guidance indicates that it will retain its identity and move farther north-northeastward over the Atlantic during the forecast period. The official forecast is shifted a little more to the east of the previous NHC prediction and is close to the corrected model consensus, HCCA. Output from the statistical-dynamical SHIPS models shows some increase in the low- to mid-level relative humidity and also suggests some increase in instability during the forecast period. The SHIPS output also shows generally low to moderate vertical shear for the next few days. The official forecast shows some restrengthening after 48 hours, but not as much of an intensity increase as called for by the SHIPS/LGEM predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 19.0N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 19.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.3N 48.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 21.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 22.8N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 24.6N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 27.0N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 29.0N 43.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Graphics
2024-09-16 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:33:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:33:06 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics