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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2025-06-16 22:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162052 TCDEP5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala have increased in organization over the past couple of days. Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed elongated low-level center south of a burst of modest convective activity. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a partial overpass of satellite scatterometer data. Since the system is expected to develop and affect southern Mexico late Wednesday or Thursday, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/7 kt, but this is uncertain due to the lack of a defined core. The low is moving along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the southwestern Atlantic, and this feature should control the motion of the system for the entirety of the forecast period. Most global and regional models predict the low will turn toward the northwest later today or tonight, and that motion should persist for the next few days. There is noticeable spread in the along-track speed of the system among the various models. The GFS and some of the regional models show a slower motion while the ECMWF and HCCA anticipate a quicker forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies closest to a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, near the center of the guidance envelope. The low should remain over an area of very warm waters and within a conducive environment for strengthening. SHIPS-EC shows a 50 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening in 48 hr, which highlights the possibility of rapid intensification in the coming days. The official forecast predicts the disturbance will become a tropical storm in about a day and a hurricane in a couple of days. The NHC forecast lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. This system is expected to bring significant winds upon landfall in southern Mexico in the next few days or so. However, it is important to note that uncertainty remains high in the exact location of potential impacts, and interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecasts. NHC now has the ability to issue tropical cyclone advisory products for Potential Tropical Cyclones up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds on land when confidence is high that there is a significant risk of wind or storm surge impacts to land, regardless of the immediate need for land-based hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings, Previously, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be issued up to 48 hours beforehand. Appropriate watches and warnings will still be issued 48 and 36 hours, respectively, before the onset of tropical-storm-force winds. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it approaches southern Mexico. Hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday.. 2. The system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-16 22:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Jun 16 the center of Five-E was located near 10.6, -91.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Public Advisory Number 1
2025-06-16 22:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 960 WTPZ35 KNHC 162051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 91.7W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 91.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and a hurricane on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E may produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions could occur along portions of southern Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics