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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Public Advisory Number 1
2025-06-16 22:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 960 WTPZ35 KNHC 162051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 91.7W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 91.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and a hurricane on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E may produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions could occur along portions of southern Mexico by late Wednesday or Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2025-06-16 22:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 524 WTPZ25 KNHC 162051 TCMEP5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 91.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 91.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 91.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI/MORA/CANO [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-16 19:23:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
599 ABNT20 KNHC 161719TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics