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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2025-06-16 22:52:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 162052 PWSEP5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 2100 UTC MON JUN 16 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) X(22) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 10(44) X(44) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 63(77) 2(79) X(79) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 2(40) X(40) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 3(51) X(51) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 35(41) 32(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) 1(29) X(29) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2025-06-16 22:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162052 TCDEP5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala have increased in organization over the past couple of days. Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed elongated low-level center south of a burst of modest convective activity. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a partial overpass of satellite scatterometer data. Since the system is expected to develop and affect southern Mexico late Wednesday or Thursday, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The initial motion is estimated to be 295/7 kt, but this is uncertain due to the lack of a defined core. The low is moving along the western periphery of a ridge centered over the southwestern Atlantic, and this feature should control the motion of the system for the entirety of the forecast period. Most global and regional models predict the low will turn toward the northwest later today or tonight, and that motion should persist for the next few days. There is noticeable spread in the along-track speed of the system among the various models. The GFS and some of the regional models show a slower motion while the ECMWF and HCCA anticipate a quicker forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies closest to a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, near the center of the guidance envelope. The low should remain over an area of very warm waters and within a conducive environment for strengthening. SHIPS-EC shows a 50 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening in 48 hr, which highlights the possibility of rapid intensification in the coming days. The official forecast predicts the disturbance will become a tropical storm in about a day and a hurricane in a couple of days. The NHC forecast lies near the higher end of the intensity guidance envelope. This system is expected to bring significant winds upon landfall in southern Mexico in the next few days or so. However, it is important to note that uncertainty remains high in the exact location of potential impacts, and interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the latest forecasts. NHC now has the ability to issue tropical cyclone advisory products for Potential Tropical Cyclones up to 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of tropical-storm-force winds on land when confidence is high that there is a significant risk of wind or storm surge impacts to land, regardless of the immediate need for land-based hurricane or tropical storm watches or warnings, Previously, Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be issued up to 48 hours beforehand. Appropriate watches and warnings will still be issued 48 and 36 hours, respectively, before the onset of tropical-storm-force winds. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Tuesday and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it approaches southern Mexico. Hurricane watches will likely be required for portions of southern Mexico tonight or early Tuesday.. 2. The system will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 10.6N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0600Z 11.1N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 17/1800Z 11.8N 93.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 12.6N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 13.5N 95.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 14.5N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 15.8N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.0N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Mora/Cano [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-16 22:52:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED STRENGTHEN AND BRING SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Jun 16 the center of Five-E was located near 10.6, -91.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics