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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2025-06-13 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 372 WTPZ44 KNHC 130832 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with the convective banding increasing and the circulation becoming better defined. However, the system does not yet have either enough organized convection or a sufficiently well-defined circulation to be considered a tropical cyclone. The scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds about 120 n mi south and southeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 335/8 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the depression is currently south of a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico and southeast of a mid- to upper-level ridge over Baja California and the adjacent Pacific. The dynamical models forecast that the trough will weaken and move eastward during the next 2-3 days, with the ridge building eastward to the north of the system. This evolution should cause the disturbance to turn northwestward later today, followed by a west-northwestward and westward motion later in the forecast period. The forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and just a little north of the previous track. There is a possibility of erratic motion today as the system gets better organized, and this may affect how close the system will come to the coast of Mexico. The forecast track keeps the system over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36-48 h. However, a combination of the broad structure and moderate easterly vertical wind shear is likely to slow the development. The new intensity guidance is a little lower than for the previous forecast, and the forecast peak intensity of 60 kt is near the high end of the guidance envelope. After 48 h, cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to steady weakening, and the system is forecast to dissipate by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E (EP4/EP042025)
2025-06-13 10:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Four-E was located near 12.8, -100.8 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 3
2025-06-13 10:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 250 WTPZ34 KNHC 130832 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 100.8W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 100.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics