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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
2025-06-13 10:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 08:34:06 GMT [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2025-06-13 10:33:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 533 FOPZ14 KNHC 130832 PWSEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2025-06-13 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 372 WTPZ44 KNHC 130832 TCDEP4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the disturbance is gradually becoming better organized, with the convective banding increasing and the circulation becoming better defined. However, the system does not yet have either enough organized convection or a sufficiently well-defined circulation to be considered a tropical cyclone. The scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds about 120 n mi south and southeast of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 335/8 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the depression is currently south of a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northern Mexico and southeast of a mid- to upper-level ridge over Baja California and the adjacent Pacific. The dynamical models forecast that the trough will weaken and move eastward during the next 2-3 days, with the ridge building eastward to the north of the system. This evolution should cause the disturbance to turn northwestward later today, followed by a west-northwestward and westward motion later in the forecast period. The forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and just a little north of the previous track. There is a possibility of erratic motion today as the system gets better organized, and this may affect how close the system will come to the coast of Mexico. The forecast track keeps the system over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36-48 h. However, a combination of the broad structure and moderate easterly vertical wind shear is likely to slow the development. The new intensity guidance is a little lower than for the previous forecast, and the forecast peak intensity of 60 kt is near the high end of the guidance envelope. After 48 h, cooler waters and drier mid-level air will lead to steady weakening, and the system is forecast to dissipate by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 12.8N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics