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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2025-06-12 22:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 448 WTPZ34 KNHC 122044 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...DISTURBANCE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 100.2W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 100.2 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2025-06-12 22:43:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 853 WTPZ24 KNHC 122043 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 2100 UTC THU JUN 12 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 100.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.3N 101.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 104.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 85SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 108.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.3N 112.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 100.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2025-06-12 19:27:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
275 ABNT20 KNHC 121727TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics