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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 2
2025-06-13 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 992 WTPZ34 KNHC 130233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 100.6W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2025-06-13 04:33:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 036 WTPZ24 KNHC 130233 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 12.9N 100.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.1N 102.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.2N 103.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E (EP4/EP042025)
2025-06-13 01:39:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Thu Jun 12 the center of Four-E was located near 11.5, -100.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics