je.st
news
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 3
2025-06-13 10:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 250 WTPZ34 KNHC 130832 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 100.8W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning may be required for portions of the watch area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 100.8 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2025-06-13 10:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 130831 TCMEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 100.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.6W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.7N 101.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 104.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.6N 110.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 100.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Graphics
2025-06-13 07:34:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 05:34:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Jun 2025 03:21:36 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics