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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2025-06-13 04:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 976 FOPZ14 KNHC 130233 PWSEP4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC FRI JUN 13 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 20(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E (EP4/EP042025)
2025-06-13 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Thu Jun 12 the center of Four-E was located near 11.9, -100.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Public Advisory Number 2
2025-06-13 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 992 WTPZ34 KNHC 130233 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Thu Jun 12 2025 ...DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 100.6W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Tecpan De Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.6 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics