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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-09-23 17:00:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231500 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images, surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest. Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a 95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast should monitor the progress of this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to strengthen and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify while it moves northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and it could be a major hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along portions of the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west coast. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean which may lead to flooding and possible mudslides in western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-23 16:59:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 17.6, -82.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2024-09-23 16:59:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231459 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch for Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will spread into the Southeast U.S. starting on Wednesday and continuing through Friday, bringing a risk of flash and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics