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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-09-24 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 967 WTNT44 KNHC 240239 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that there has been little change in the organization of the system since earlier today. Most of the deep convection is over the eastern part of the broad circulation. Animation of proxy-vis GOES images, and radar observations from Grand Cayman Weather Service suggest that the disturbance still does not have a well-defined center of circulation, so the system is kept as a potential tropical cyclone for the time being. The advisory intensity is held at 30 kt which is in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area in a few hours to provide a better description of the system's structure along with an updated intensity estimate. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 330/5 kt. During the next day or so, the disturbance is expected to turn northwestward along the southern and southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure area. Then, the high is expected to shift eastward while a mid-level trough drops into the central United States. This evolution of the steering pattern should cause the system to accelerate northward to north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and toward the northeastern Gulf Coast through Thursday. There is good agreement in the track guidance, and the official forecast is close to the corrected dynamical consensus model, HCCA, prediction. This is also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. An upper-level low over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula has been imparting some southwesterly vertical wind shear over the disturbance. This has probably caused a temporary disruption in development. Dynamical guidance shows this low weakening with time, resulting in a reduction of shear in an environment that is otherwise very conducive for intensification. The system is projected to move over waters of very high ocean heat content, which should lead to considerable strengthening during the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the statistical-dynamical model guidance and the purely dynamical model predictions. It should be noted that the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane strength at landfall. It should also be noted that the cyclone is expected to grow in size while it traverses the Gulf. Thus, the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is forecast to intensify and be near hurricane strength when it reaches the far northwestern Caribbean Sea Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with hurricane conditions possible. 2. The system is expected to intensify into a major hurricane before it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. While it is too soon to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of impacts, the potential for life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force winds along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast is increasing. Hurricane Watches and additional Storm Surge watches will likely be issued for a portion of that area Tuesday morning, and residents should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 3. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, which will cause considerable flooding and mudslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall will likely result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible across the Southeast, Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley Wednesday through Friday. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding will be possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 18.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/1200Z 19.1N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 25/0000Z 20.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.6N 85.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 23.4N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 26.2N 84.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 30.4N 83.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092024)
2024-09-24 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 the center of Nine was located near 18.4, -82.4 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 3
2024-09-24 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240238 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 82.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the southwest coast of Florida from Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Cayman * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge * Bonita Beach southward to Flamingo A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast, including the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast, should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required on Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night, and then over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba and the Cayman Islands with isolated totals around 12 inches. Over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected with isolated totals over 6 inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. Over the Southeastern U.S., Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals around 10 inches. This rainfall will likely result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with minor to isolated moderate river flooding also possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Bonita Beach to Flamingo...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-3 ft Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas in Cuba and Mexico by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in Cuba and Mexico beginning on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will affect the southern coast of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics