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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Public Advisory Number 2A
2024-11-14 06:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 100 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN HONDURAS LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 81.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM E OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Castilla to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Sal to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua Border to Puerto Cabezas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, and in Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 81.2 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward motion should continue for another day or so, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area beginning late today. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Graphics
2024-11-14 06:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 05:43:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 03:22:59 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-11-14 03:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 038 WTNT44 KNHC 140234 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 The disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours with deep convection persisting near and to the west of the estimated center. Although the convection is relatively well organized, the definition of the low-level circulation remains poor, and for that reason, the system is not yet a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 25 kt and the minimum pressure is around 1005 mb based on surface observations. The system continues to move westward at about 8 kt on the south side of a mid-level ridge that is centered near the Florida Straits. This ridge should keep the disturbance on a westward track until Friday, taking the system over or just north of eastern Honduras. After that, the ridge is expected to break down, and the models agree that cyclone will meander in weak steering currents from late Friday through the weekend. This expected slow motion will cause the system to produce heavy rains over the same region, likely causing life-threatening flooding over portions of Central America. By early next week, ridging should become re-established over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, which should cause the system to move northwestward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening during the next few days with vertical wind shear expected to be low and mid-level humidities forecast to remain relatively high near the system. However, there remains a significant amount of uncertainty in how much land interaction there will be with Honduras during the next several days. If the system remains offshore, it will likely take advantage of the conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions and at least steadily strengthen through the weekend. However, if the system moves even a little south of the forecast track, notably less strengthening or even weakening could occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. However, it must be stressed that there is a lot of uncertainty in this intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall will cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Central America, particularly Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua. 2. The disturbance is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near the eastern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua on Friday and Saturday. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. 3. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico at or near hurricane strength by early next week where there is a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. 4. It is too soon to determine what impacts the system could bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba during the middle portion of next week. Residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.1N 80.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 82.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 15/0000Z 16.2N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 16.3N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/0000Z 16.2N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/0000Z 15.9N 85.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 96H 18/0000Z 16.6N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 19.3N 89.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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