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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-06-18 10:49:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 800 WTNT41 KNHC 180848 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The system has not become better organized over the past few hours, with limited central deep convection and the strongest thunderstorm activity near the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The cloud pattern is still not classifiable via the Dvorak technique. ASCAT scatterometer data indicated that the inner circulation was still not well organized, with a broad area of light winds near the estimated center. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center it will continue to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the system later this morning to assess whether the circulation is becoming better defined. Although there is significant uncertainty in the center location, my best guess of initial motion is northward near 5 kt. This general motion is likely to continue into tonight, followed by a gradual westward turn due to a mid-level ridge building over the northern Gulf Coast. On this track, the center will be near northeastern Mexico by late Wednesday. The official forecast track is slightly south of, and a bit faster than, the previous one and close to the latest model consensus. Based on NOAA buoy data, the intensity remains near 35 kt. The system has a large upper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern associated with it, and is situated over warm waters with light vertical shear. These conditions would favor strengthening but the lack of a well-defined inner core is inhibiting intensification. Assuming that the inner circulation becomes better established during the next day or so, some increase in strength is forecast up to landfall. It should be noted that regardless of the exact track of the low, we expect this system to have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. The official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning this morning and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Wednesday over portions of the Texas coast south of Port OConnor, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect, and over portions of northeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.3N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/1800Z 22.0N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 19/0600Z 22.7N 94.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 19/1800Z 23.2N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 20/0600Z 23.3N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 20/1800Z 23.5N 100.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2024-06-18 10:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024 256 FONT11 KNHC 180848 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 0900 UTC TUE JUN 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 26(31) 6(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone One (AT1/AL012024)
2024-06-18 10:48:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 the center of One was located near 21.3, -93.0 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics