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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Graphics
2024-06-17 23:08:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 17 Jun 2024 21:08:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 17 Jun 2024 21:08:56 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-06-17 22:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 444 WTNT41 KNHC 172054 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Satellite, surface, and aircraft data show that the center of the large low pressure area is over the Bay of Campeche with a central pressure near 1001 mb. The system currently does not have the structure of a tropical cyclone, as the associated convection is poorly organized and the maximum winds are located about 200-250 n mi northeast of the center. The various global models forecast this band of stronger winds to start moving onto the western Gulf coast on Wednesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is required at this time. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. The initial motion is 345/6. This general motion should continue for the next 24 h or so, although there could be some erratic motion due to center reformation. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and westward on the south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the northern Gulf coast. This should steer the system into northeastern Mexico between 48-72 h. While there are differences in details due to the disorganized nature of the system, the track guidance is in good agreement on this general scenario. The global models suggest that some deepening of the central pressure could occur, although none of them currently forecast the system to tighten up into a classic tropical cyclone. Based on that, the intensity forecast calls for only modest strengthening. There is a chance than a small-scale vorticity center inside the large cyclonic envelope may develop enough convection to form a tighter wind core as suggested by the GFS, and based on this possibility the forecast has the system becoming a tropical storm in about 36 h. However, there is a chance the system will never become a tropical cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track of this system. The disturbance is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding, and wind impacts likely to occur far from the center along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across Central America into Northeast Mexico. 3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas Coast beginning early Tuesday and continuing through midweek. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Wednesday over portions of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast south of Port OConnor, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 20.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-06-17 22:49:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024 338 FONT11 KNHC 172048 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics