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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory Number 1
2024-06-17 22:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 902 WTNT31 KNHC 172048 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024 400 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 93.2W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Texas and northeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may be required tonight and on Tuesday. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande * The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 93.2 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-06-17 22:48:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024 054 WTNT21 KNHC 172048 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012024 2100 UTC MON JUN 17 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 93.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.1N 93.4W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 93.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 23.4N 96.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 23.8N 97.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...250NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 24.0N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 24.0N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 93.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-06-17 19:42:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 171742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL91): Satellite and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is located over the Bay of Campeche with winds of 35-40 mph occurring in an area well to the northeast of the center over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while the low moves slowly west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. Regardless of development, several more days of heavy rainfall are expected across portions of southern Mexico and Central America, and these rains are likely to cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected to spread over portions of Texas and Louisiana by the middle of the week. In addition, gale warnings have been issued for portions of the Gulf of Mexico, and more information on those warnings is available in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches and warnings may be required for portions of this area later this afternoon or tonight. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean: An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics