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Remnants of Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 41
2024-10-12 16:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 121442 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Leslie Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 ASCAT-B data valid near 1300 UTC indicated that Leslie's fast forward motion has caused it to open into a trough. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Leslie. The ASCAT data indicated that winds of 40-45 kt are still present on the east side of Leslie's remnants, where it continues to produce limited deep convection. A mid-latitude frontal system is nearing the remnants of Leslie, and the two systems are expected to merge within the next 12 h or so, marking Leslie's full transition to a post-tropical cyclone. It is possible that Leslie will redevelop a closed circulation as a non-tropical low at that point. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward on Sunday, bringing it very near or over the Azores late Sunday and through early Monday. By Monday afternoon, Leslie's center is expected to become poorly defined again as it interacts with another weaker mid-latitude cyclone to the east of the Azores. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 33.3N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...REMNANTS OF LESLIE 12H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Remnants of Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2024-10-12 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 121441 PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF LESLIE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS ...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Remnants of Leslie (AT3/AL132024)
2024-10-12 16:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -43.4 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics