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Subtropical Storm Patty Graphics
2024-11-03 03:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 02:35:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Nov 2024 03:23:03 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Subtropical Storm Patty Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-11-03 03:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030232 TCDAT2 Subtropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 03 2024 The convective structure of Patty has changed some over the past several hours as the center passes just south of the central Azores. While the cloud tops have cooled, the convection is now mainly to the northeast of the center, and the overall cloud pattern is elongated south-to-north. The system remains embedded in a deep-layer cold air mass, with surface temperatures in the Azores currently below 20C. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little due to the decreased convective symmetry, and this is the basis for lowering the initial intensity to 50 kt. Patty is expected to weaken over the next few days as the parent upper-level low decays to an open trough, leaving the storm in stronger shear. While this happens, it should also move into a drier and more stable airmass. This combination is expected to cause the convection to dissipate by 36 h, with the storm becoming a post-tropical low at that time. The latest global model guidance suggests that the remnant low is likely to decay to a trough by 72 h, so the new intensity forecast now calls for dissipation by then. The initial motion is now 095/17 kt. The mid-latitude westerly flow is expected to steer the cyclone eastward for 12-24 h, followed by an east-northeastward motion. The models remain in fairly good agreement, and the forecast track is again near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Azores through the weekend, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. 2. Locally heavy rains are possible across the Azores through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 37.9N 27.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 37.6N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 37.6N 20.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 38.5N 16.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 05/0000Z 40.1N 12.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 05/1200Z 41.6N 9.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Subtropical Storm Patty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-11-03 03:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 030232 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172024 0300 UTC SUN NOV 03 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM PATTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 81 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) PONTA DELGADA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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