je.st
news
Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)
2024-10-05 16:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MAJOR HURRICANE KIRK TURNING MORE NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Kirk was located near 27.6, -50.3 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-10-05 16:50:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051450 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Leslie this morning. Some of the latest satellite images depict a little bit of shear starting to impact the system, with a sharper convective edge on the western side. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 65 to 75 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt for this advisory. Leslie continues to move slowly west-northwestward (295/6 kt), steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the middle of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous, and lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. The intensity forecast continues to trend downward with Leslie. The system has about 12-24 hours left within a favorable environment where some slight additional strengthening may occur. By Sunday, increased shear, drier mid-level, and the track taking Leslie over Kirk's cold wake, this could cause some weakening after 24 hours. There is better agreement with the weakening trend, however they differ on how significantly and how quickly weakening will occur. Therefore, downward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast and now has Leslie weakening below hurricane strength beyond 48 h. If trends continue further downward adjustments may be required in future advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 11.1N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 11.7N 36.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.7N 37.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.8N 38.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.0N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 16.4N 42.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.8N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 20.4N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 22.4N 50.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2024-10-05 16:50:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 051450 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics