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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2024-10-03 04:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:41:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 02:41:11 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2024-10-03 04:39:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030239 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 The depression has changed little during the past several hours, and it remains embedded in a larger-scale trough that extends from offshore of Manzanillo northeastward to the central Gulf of Mexico. The system itself continues to produce patches of deep convection, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with 2.0 Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The depression has been drifting southwestward, but the models generally agree that an abrupt turn to the north should occur on Thursday, with that motion bringing the system to the coast of southern Mexico Thursday night or Friday. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the east to be in better agreement with the latest models, but this prediction still lies to the west of most of the model solutions. Strengthening is possible before the cyclone reaches the coast, but since the system remains disorganized and embedded in a larger trough, significant intensification seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance. The main threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall that will likely continue in portions of southern Mexico during the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.2N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.4N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 15.8N 96.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven-E (EP1/EP112024)
2024-10-03 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 9:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.2, -96.7 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics