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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Graphics
2024-10-03 10:49:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 08:49:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:34:45 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Forecast Discussion Number 7
2024-10-03 10:48:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030848 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression still has a disheveled satellite appearance, with a few clusters of deep convection but no clear signs of improved organization since the previous advisory. This is consistent with the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates (T2.0/30-kt), and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The center position of the system is very uncertain given the lack of recent microwave or scatterometer data. Based on recent fixes, satellite trends, and earlier scatterometer data, the center has been nudged slightly north and east of previous estimates. A partial scatterometer pass shows the depression is likely interacting with a larger trough that extends northward across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The uncertain initial motion of the system is northeastward at 2 kt. In general, the global models show a northeastward to northward motion through Friday while the system approaches and moves across the coast of southern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area. Once again, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward based on the latest guidance. But, the forecast still might require future adjustments if it is determined that the center is located farther east than currently estimated. Significant intensification appears unlikely given the broad, disorganized convective structure of the depression and continued northeasterly shear over the system. However, the warm SSTs and moist environment in which it is embedded could allow for the depression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of Mexico, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. Regardless, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.5N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.1N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.1N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 17.5N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eleven-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2024-10-03 10:45:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 632 FOPZ11 KNHC 030845 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 0900 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics