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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2025-06-17 04:42:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 PM CST Mon Jun 16 2025 Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the system has developed a well-defined circulation, and deep convection has been consolidating near and north of the center. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as the ridge currently steering the system weakens. Although the models are in fair agreement, the complexity of the track moving parallel to the coast of southern Mexico means that small changes in the system's heading will cause notable differences on where and when the most significant wind impacts will occur. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is generally similar to the previous one. Users are reminded that the average 60-hour NHC track error is a little more than 60 n mi. The environmental conditions are nearly ideal for intensification with the vertical wind shear expected to be less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities near or above 80 percent, and SSTs over 29 C for the next 2 or 3 days. Nearly all of the models show the system strengthening significantly, and given the conducive conditions, rapid intensification is a possibility. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the consensus models and shows the cyclone becoming a tropical storm by early Tuesday and a hurricane before it reaches Mexico. Based on this forecast, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of southern Mexico. Watches will likely be extended westward on Tuesday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tuesday and quickly strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday as it approaches southern Mexico. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of southern Mexico. 2. The depression will likely produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and southern Mexico through this week. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Storm surge could produce coastal flooding near where the center crosses the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 11.2N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 11.8N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 12.5N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 13.3N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 14.2N 96.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 15.5N 97.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 16.6N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/0000Z 18.3N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2025-06-17 04:42:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170241 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052025 0300 UTC TUE JUN 17 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) X(12) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 3(22) X(22) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) X(33) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 46(54) 2(56) X(56) P MALDONADO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) P MALDONADO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 32(72) 1(73) X(73) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) X(28) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 22(34) 1(35) X(35) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 26(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-17 04:41:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 PM CST Mon Jun 16 the center of Five-E was located near 11.2, -92.6 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics