je.st
news
Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2025-06-13 16:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 131437 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 Latest satellite imagery depicts that the disturbance south of Mexico has continued to become better organized this morning. First-light visible imagery shows that the system has developed a well-defined low-level center, and infrared imagery shows a large burst of organized deep convection with cold cloud tops near -80 C. Thus, the disturbance now meets the requirements to be classified a tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain around 30 kt with a T2.0 from TAFB. Thus, the intensity is held at 30 kt, and the system is now Tropical Depression Four-E. The initial motion remains uncertain given the recent formation of a well-defined low-level center, but it is estimated at 335/9 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and build over Mexico later today, which will cause a more northwestward motion this afternoon and evening, followed by a west-northwestward motion later this weekend. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one, which lies near the simple consensus aids. Along the forecast track, the system will parallel the coast of southwestern Mexico, remaining offshore. As the depression continues to become better organized, steady strengthening is forecast over the next 36-48 h, with the system over warm sea surface temperatures. However, there is some moderate easterly vertical wind shear that the system will have to deal with. As the system took a little longer to consolidate, the latest NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower, with a peak intensity of 55 kt, which lies near the simple consensus. However, some of the regional hurricane models continue to show a higher peak. Beyond 48 h, the system will cross into a drier, more stable airmass and over cooler SSTs which will lead to steady weakening. Global models show the system struggling to produce convection by 72 h, becoming a remnant low, and then dissipating by 120 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Depression Four-E may bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through this weekend. Isolated flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. 2. The Tropical Depression is forecast to be at tropical storm strength when it moves near the southwestern coast of Mexico on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 13.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 17.8N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1200Z 18.3N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Depression Four-E (EP4/EP042025)
2025-06-13 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Four-E was located near 13.9, -101.6 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Four-E Public Advisory Number 4
2025-06-13 16:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 012 WTPZ34 KNHC 131436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 101.6W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula, and a Tropical Storm Watch north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana * North of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 101.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by Sunday. On the forecast track, the disturbance is forecast to move parallel to, but offshore of, the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Four-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Four-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics