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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2024-11-07 09:41:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070841 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142024 300 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 The depression has finally managed to produce some deep convection, mainly to the northwest of the low-level center, during the diurnal maximum period tonight. A partial scatterometer pass around 0410 UTC depicted 20-25 kt winds in the northwestern quadrant, thus the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently within a moderate vertical wind shear environment, and this shear is not allowing convection to become organized around the low-level center. Global models are in fairly good agreement that the system will degenerate and open into a trough within the next day or so, although this could occur sooner than forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and now shows the system dissipating in 24 h. The system has been moving slowly the last several hours with an estimated east-southeastward motion around 110/02 kt. A more southeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated later today within the low-level northwesterly wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous, which lies near the simple and corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 13.4N 104.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-11-07 09:41:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 070841 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2024-11-07 09:40:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070840 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142024 0900 UTC THU NOV 07 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 104.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 105.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics