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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 1
2024-10-05 16:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051458 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 95.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: The system may produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. Areas of heavy rainfall will also impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Fourteen, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2024-10-05 16:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 051457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 95.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 95.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 110SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 95.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Kirk Graphics
2024-10-05 16:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 14:56:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 14:56:31 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics