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Tropical Depression Gordon Forecast Discussion Number 20
2024-09-16 10:44:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160844 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 The convection that developed during the evening hours on the east side of Gordon has persisted through the night. Nighttime CIRA proxy vis imagery suggests that the low-level center of Gordon is near the western edge of this convection. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 25 to 33 kt. In the absence of ASCAT data, no change is made to the 25-kt intensity carried in the previous NHC advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/7 kt. Gordon is being steered westward by the subtropical ridge, situated to the north of the tropical depression. This setup should continue to steer Gordon slowly westward through today. Thereafter, a frontal low located to the north of the ridge is forecast to drop equatorward towards Gordon, creating a weakness in the subtropical ridge. As a result of this steering change, Gordon should initially slow its forward motion, and then turn toward the north-northeast while gradually accelerating. The consensus track models have continued to shift a bit to the right and faster, and the latest NHC forecast is again nudged in that direction. Gordon has been doing a remarkable job fighting off environmental dry air given how the area of convection has maintained itself overnight relatively close to the low-level center. Gordon is forecast to remain in a dry mid-level environment for the next few days, although some slight moistening of the environment is possible beyond 24 h while the vertical shear is forecast to remain relatively low. Although it is still possible that Gordon could degenerate to a remnant low, if the cyclone is able to survive the next 24 h, then its chances of surviving the next 5 days would seem to increase. There is also some uncertainty as to how Gordon's circulation could potentially interact with a non-tropical low in 3 to 4 days. If Gordon then survives its interaction with the non-tropical low, some strengthening would be possible in 4 to 5 days as shown by some of the global models. No changes were made to the previous NHC intensity prediction, which still assumes Gordon will survive in the short term. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 19.2N 47.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 19.3N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.9N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.7N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.9N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 24.6N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 26.8N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Depression Gordon (AT2/AL072024)
2024-09-16 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 16 the center of Gordon was located near 19.2, -47.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 20
2024-09-16 10:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160843 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 AM AST Mon Sep 16 2024 ...GORDON MAINTAINING ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 47.5W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 47.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward motion is expected during the next day or so, with Gordon forecast to slow down considerably through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days, though Gordon could become a post-tropical remnant low at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics