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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 13
2024-09-30 16:47:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 669 WTNT21 KNHC 301434 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112024 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 49.3W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 49.3W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KONARIK/PAPIN
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-09-30 16:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 301436 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2024 Joyce continues to struggle to remain a tropical depression, having a fully exposed low-level center displaced to the west of pulsing deep convection. This displacement is a result of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a central Atlantic upper-level trough. With no recent surface observations or scatterometer wind data available, 30 kt will remain the initial intensity, reflecting the subjective Dvorak analysis from TAFB and SAB. The depression has meandered this morning, and the current motion estimate is an uncertain 360/2 kt. The official track forecast depicts a slow northward motion until Joyce fully dissipates in 48 h, similar to the previous track forecast. Continued shear coupled with persistent dry air should increasingly inhibit organized convection, leading to Joyce degenerating into a remnant low soon. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous one showing Joyce becoming a remnant low in 12 h with total dissipation in about 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.4N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 49.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 24.1N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 25.3N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Konarik/Papin
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT1/AL112024)
2024-09-30 16:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 30 the center of Joyce was located near 22.4, -49.3 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics