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Tropical Depression One-E Graphics
2024-07-04 16:50:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 14:50:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jul 2024 14:50:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-07-04 16:50:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 312 WTPZ41 KNHC 041449 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 900 AM CST Thu Jul 04 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized over the past 12-18 hours in association with the small area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for the past several days. There have been no recent scatterometer or passive microwave passes to assess the low-level circulation of the system. However, the persistence of the convection and the current satellite structure suggest a well-defined surface circulation has likely formed underneath the colder cloud tops. It is determined that the first tropical depression of the eastern Pacific season has formed. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on a T2.0 subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. The center position of the depression is uncertain based on the lack of data, but the initial estimated motion is northwest (325/8 kt). The models agree that this motion will continue into tonight, followed by a westward turn on Friday within the low-level flow. With warm SSTs and relatively low shear today, it is possible that the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical storm, though not explicitly forecast. The tropical cyclone will move across the 26C isotherm during the next 24-36 h, and the cooler waters and drier mid-level environment thereafter should induce a weakening trend. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery suggest convection is likely to collapse on Friday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Friday night and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.0N 105.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 17.8N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 17.5N 109.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-07-04 16:49:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 896 FOPZ11 KNHC 041448 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012024 1500 UTC THU JUL 04 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics