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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2024-09-11 22:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:48:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 2
2024-09-11 22:43:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112043 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 Satellite images show there has been little change with the depression this afternoon. Although deep convection has faded some, this is pretty typical at this time of day. The initial wind speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and subjective Dvorak classifications. The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic. The big change to note is that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward). The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend (continuity prevents a larger change). Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time. Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.2N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2024-09-11 22:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 112042 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics