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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-11-01 21:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012053 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Correct storm to cyclone in the second paragraph The area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better organized this afternoon. An ASCAT pass early this morning indicated a well-defined circulation, and deep convection near the center has persisted throughout the day. A subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 18Z was T2.5, and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest that the winds have increased to near 30 kt. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion of this tropical cyclone is westward at 270/6 kt. The depression is expected to continue on a generally westward trajectory during the next day or two as it is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north of the system. The track guidance is in good agreement for the next several days, and the official forecast track represents a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The depression is expected to be a short-lived system. The intensity forecast indicates that the depression will remain below tropical storm status through the weekend, though a low-end tropical storm cannot be ruled out. By late this weekend, vertical wind shear is expected to increase significantly, and the system is expected to dissipate into a remnant low after about two days. The NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2024-11-01 21:41:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2024 20:41:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Nov 2024 21:22:48 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2024-11-01 21:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2024 218 FOPZ13 KNHC 012032 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132024 2100 UTC FRI NOV 01 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT
Category: Transportation and Logistics