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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2024-11-01 21:53:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012053 CCA TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132024 200 PM PDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Correct storm to cyclone in the second paragraph The area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better organized this afternoon. An ASCAT pass early this morning indicated a well-defined circulation, and deep convection near the center has persisted throughout the day. A subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB at 18Z was T2.5, and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest that the winds have increased to near 30 kt. Based on these data, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The initial motion of this tropical cyclone is westward at 270/6 kt. The depression is expected to continue on a generally westward trajectory during the next day or two as it is steered by a broad mid-level ridge to the north of the system. The track guidance is in good agreement for the next several days, and the official forecast track represents a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models. The depression is expected to be a short-lived system. The intensity forecast indicates that the depression will remain below tropical storm status through the weekend, though a low-end tropical storm cannot be ruled out. By late this weekend, vertical wind shear is expected to increase significantly, and the system is expected to dissipate into a remnant low after about two days. The NHC intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is similar to the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 11.2N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 11.2N 129.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 11.2N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 11.3N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 11.3N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 11.3N 135.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hogsett
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