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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 3
2024-06-29 10:36:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 290836 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Beryl has become better organized, with the formation of a cold curved convective band near the center and over the western semicircle. However, AMSR-2 microwave data near 04Z suggested that the center of this convective curvature may have been displaced a little west of the low-level center. Based on the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 45 kt. The cyclone currently has good anticyclonic outflow, especially in the western semicircle. The initial motion is 280/18 kt. Beryl is on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone quickly westward or west-northwestward toward and through the Windward Islands during the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is some divergence in the track guidance as Beryl approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near and east of Florida. The GFS-based guidance calls for the storm to continue west- northwestward, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show a more westward motion. The consensus models lean more toward a west-northwestward motion, and the official forecast follows this guidance. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification. The new intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and it now calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt in 60-72 h. This peak could be conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast Beryl to become a major hurricane. After 72 h, the storm is expected to encounter increasing westerly shear, which should cause some weakening. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves. 2. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for Barbados. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches, and possibly Warnings, will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands later today. 3. Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 9.8N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 10.3N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 11.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 11.6N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 12.4N 58.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 01/1800Z 13.3N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 14.4N 65.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 16.8N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 04/0600Z 19.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-06-29 10:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 9.8, -45.5 with movement W at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 3
2024-06-29 10:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 290836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 500 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 45.5W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 45.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by Sunday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce localized flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics