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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 40
2024-07-08 16:52:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 928 WTNT42 KNHC 081451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024 Despite being overland for about 6 hours, NWS radar and surface data indicate that the system has only slightly weakened, with a fairly well-defined eye present. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, as a compromise of Doppler wind velocities and surface observations. While Beryl is no longer a hurricane, there are still many life-threatening hazards associated with the storm, and these are detailed in the Key Messages below. Beryl should remain a potent wind gust producer for the next few hours with recent observations in the eastern eyewall reporting wind gusts above 70 kt. As more of the circulation moves inland later today, Beryl is forecast to steadily weaken and become a tropical depression tonight or overnight. No change to the intensity forecast has been made. The storm is moving north-northeastward, now a little faster at 11 kt. Beryl should turn northeastward and accelerate across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast, a bit to the east. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through this afternoon along the coast of Texas from Port OConnor to Sabine Pass, including the eastern portion of Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. 2. Damaging wind gusts near the core of Beryl will continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area, including the Houston metro area, for the next several hours. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected today into tonight across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. 4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 29.8N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 09/0000Z 31.5N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1200Z 33.9N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/0000Z 36.7N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 10/1200Z 39.7N 86.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 42.2N 82.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 44.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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