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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2024-06-29 16:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 478 FONT12 KNHC 291446 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 1500 UTC SAT JUN 29 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PT GALLINAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CURACAO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 27(48) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 21(52) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) 1(47) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) X(41) X(41) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 15(28) X(28) X(28) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 15(70) X(70) X(70) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 14(36) X(36) X(36) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 18(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 20(57) X(57) X(57) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 68(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 18(59) X(59) X(59) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) X(39) X(39) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 4(38) X(38) X(38) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) 1(16) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JUANGRIEGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022024)
2024-06-29 16:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Jun 29 the center of Beryl was located near 10.0, -47.8 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 4
2024-06-29 16:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 125 WTNT32 KNHC 291446 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024 ...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 47.8W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island. The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Hurricane Watch for Grenada and a Tropical Storm Watch for Tobago. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands * Grenada A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Tobago Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 47.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A relatively quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is now forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a major hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch areas by Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow in the hurricane watch areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches across Barbados and the Windward Islands Sunday night into Monday. This rainfall may cause flooding in vulnerable areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the storm are expected to reach the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by late Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Category: Transportation and Logistics