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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 12

2025-06-11 10:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 077 WTPZ43 KNHC 110833 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection for several hours and is expected to become a remnant low later this morning. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease accordingly. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds in the 35-40 kt range in the southern semicircle. Assuming additional weakening after that time, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. After transitioning to a remnant low later this morning, Cosme is expected to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday. The storm is now moving slowly toward the northeast. A gradual turn to the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Only a slight eastward adjustment was made to the previous NHC track forecast, with no significant changes to the intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen [ more ]


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