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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 12
2025-06-11 10:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 077 WTPZ43 KNHC 110833 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Wed Jun 11 2025 Drier mid-level air and stable atmospheric conditions have taken their toll on Cosme. The system has been devoid of deep convection for several hours and is expected to become a remnant low later this morning. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease accordingly. A 11/0442 UTC ASCAT pass showed winds in the 35-40 kt range in the southern semicircle. Assuming additional weakening after that time, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. After transitioning to a remnant low later this morning, Cosme is expected to dissipate by late Thursday or Friday. The storm is now moving slowly toward the northeast. A gradual turn to the north-northeast with some acceleration is expected later today, followed by a turn to the north on Thursday. Only a slight eastward adjustment was made to the previous NHC track forecast, with no significant changes to the intensity forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 16.2N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 16.7N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 18.4N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2025-06-11 10:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 263 FOPZ13 KNHC 110832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC WED JUN 11 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER GIBBS/HAGEN [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032025)
2025-06-11 10:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM MST Wed Jun 11 the center of Cosme was located near 16.2, -114.5 with movement NE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics