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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 3
2025-06-09 04:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 Cosme is gradually improving in organization with deep convection pulsing, albeit with the center on the northern edge of the convection. A recent microwave pass did show a prominent curved band especially in the southern semicircle of the storm. The initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt for this advisory, between the lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective values. Conditions look conducive for strengthening for about the next 24 hours while Cosme moves within a fairly low shear and warm SST environment. Thereafter, some increase in easterly shear is possible, and the storm should move over a tight SST gradient into a drier airmass. Cosme is forecast to respond to these conditions by weakening quickly by midweek. The only change to the previous forecast is a small reduction in the intensity forecast at 60 and 72 h, consistent with the latest model consensus. It would not be surprising to see Cosme become a remnant low faster than shown below. The storm continues moving northwestward at 8 kt, and a west-northwest to northwest motion is anticipated during the next day or so. After that time, Tropical Storm Barbara causes a mid-level ridge to erode, and Cosme should respond by taking a sharp turn to the northeast around Barbara. Model guidance has shifted notably to the left this evening, suggesting a little more separation of the tropical cyclones before they interact. While the new forecast is adjusted to the west, this is not a particularly confident longer-range forecast due to the complexity of the interaction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.4N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 14.9N 114.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 15.8N 113.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 18.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2025-06-09 04:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 090235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0300 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA CLARION 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 115W 34 2 54(56) 12(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) 15N 115W 50 X 13(13) 9(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Cosme Public Advisory Number 3
2025-06-09 04:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 090235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cosme Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 PM MST Sun Jun 08 2025 ...COSME POISED TO STRENGTHEN ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 111.9W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cosme was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 111.9 West. Cosme is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a west-northwest to northwest motion is expected for the next day or two. A slow down and turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cosme is forecast to be near hurricane strength on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Blake [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics