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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 4
2025-06-09 10:46:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 090846 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 AM MST Mon Jun 09 2025 The satellite presentation of Cosme has continued to gradually improve since the previous advisory, with sustained deep convection holding over the low-level center. A timely 09/0524Z ASCAT pass helped with the initial intensity and 34 kt wind radii estimates, with several wind barbs showing 40 to 45 knot winds. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45 knots and T2.5/35 knots respectively. Meanwhile, the objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from 40 to 50 knots. The initial intensity has been adjusted up to 45 knots with this advisory package, in line with the most recent ASCAT pass. Cosme is moving toward west-northwest at 8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge, with a gradual slowing in forward speed. Tonight and Tuesday Barbara is forecast to erode the mid-level ridge to the north of Cosme, resulting in a further slowing in motion and a shift to the north. An increase in forward speed and a motion to the north-northeast is expected Tuesday night, with Cosme forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory and is generally a blend of the consensus guidance. Environmental conditions continue to look conducive for strengthening of Cosme during the next 24 hours or so. Vertical wind shear will lighten up some while the system passes over 27/28C water with abundant deep layer moisture. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, bringing Cosme close to hurricane strength late today or tonight. Beyond 24 hours, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase and mid-level moisture is forecast to decrease, which should lead to a gradual weakening of Cosme. A more rapid weakening is then expected by Wednesday as the system moves over much cooler water, with Cosme expected to dissipate by 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.2N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 113.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 15.0N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 15.4N 114.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 16.5N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 17.9N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z 19.0N 113.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Hagen [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Cosme Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2025-06-09 10:46:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 353 FOPZ13 KNHC 090846 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 115W 34 7 52(59) 10(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 15N 115W 50 X 15(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 115W 64 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/HAGEN [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2025-06-09 10:46:29| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 09 2025 [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics