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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 9
2025-06-10 16:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear appears to be displacing Cosme's deep convection to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have begun to decrease, and a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 55 kt. The shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to abate during the next 24 hours, and with Cosme already seeming to be ingesting more stable air, continued weakening is likely over the next day or two. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF, and high-resolution hurricane models all suggest that Cosme's deep convection could dissipate by tonight, and the NHC forecast therefore shows the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. After that time, continued weakening is forecast while the remnant low moves over colder waters, and dissipation is expected by Friday. Due to its position to the southwest of Barbara, Cosme's motion has slowed down considerably, and it is estimated to be moving toward the northwest (325 deg) at about 3 kt. While the interaction with Barbara continues, Cosme is expected to turn toward the north and north-northeast and accelerate a bit over the next day or two. The new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous prediction, and perhaps shows more of a bend back to the northwest around 60 hours, following the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg/Gibbs [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cosme (EP3/EP032025)
2025-06-10 16:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME BEGINNING TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 AM MST Tue Jun 10 the center of Cosme was located near 15.5, -114.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Advisory Number 9
2025-06-10 16:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 017 WTPZ23 KNHC 101432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032025 1500 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 60SE 45SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics