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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 9
2025-06-10 16:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101434 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 800 AM MST Tue Jun 10 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear appears to be displacing Cosme's deep convection to the southwestern quadrant of the circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have begun to decrease, and a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 55 kt. The shear affecting the cyclone is not expected to abate during the next 24 hours, and with Cosme already seeming to be ingesting more stable air, continued weakening is likely over the next day or two. In fact, simulated satellite imagery from the GFS, ECMWF, and high-resolution hurricane models all suggest that Cosme's deep convection could dissipate by tonight, and the NHC forecast therefore shows the cyclone becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. After that time, continued weakening is forecast while the remnant low moves over colder waters, and dissipation is expected by Friday. Due to its position to the southwest of Barbara, Cosme's motion has slowed down considerably, and it is estimated to be moving toward the northwest (325 deg) at about 3 kt. While the interaction with Barbara continues, Cosme is expected to turn toward the north and north-northeast and accelerate a bit over the next day or two. The new NHC forecast is not too different from the previous prediction, and perhaps shows more of a bend back to the northwest around 60 hours, following the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.5N 114.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.8N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.6N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 12/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 18.8N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 19.6N 114.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg/Gibbs [ more ]
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