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Tropical Storm Cosme Graphics
2025-06-10 22:35:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:35:42 GMT [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Cosme Forecast Discussion Number 10
2025-06-10 22:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 193 WTPZ43 KNHC 102034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Cosme Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032025 200 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Although Cosme's low-level center is obscured by high-level cirrus, it does appear to be displaced a bit to the northeast of the remaining deep convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, with objective numbers ranging between 35-45 kt, and subjective Dvorak CI numbers between 45-55 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 45 kt based on a blend of these numbers. An earlier ASCAT pass showed winds just over 40 kt in the southwestern quadrant, but the southeastern quadrant, where there could be stronger winds, was not sampled. ASCAT and recent visible imagery suggest Cosme's center is a little west of where it was placed this morning. Still, the storm has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of 330/3 kt. Cosme is expected to turn northward and then northeastward and speed up a bit through Wednesday, before turning back to the north-northwest on Thursday. This track will take Cosme over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Combined with moderate-to-strong northeasterly shear, these conditions should cause quick weakening, and GFS- and ECWMF-based simulated satellite images suggest that Cosme will lose its deep convection overnight. As a result, the NHC official forecast shows Cosme becoming a remnant low within 24 hours, with dissipation now expected by 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.8N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 16.2N 114.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 17.1N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 19.1N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Barbara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2025-06-10 22:34:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 10 2025 [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics