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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 10
2025-06-15 04:56:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 536 WTPZ44 KNHC 150255 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 knots. A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast Sunday night through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler water. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and generally in the middle of the various track aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later tonight as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then forecast Sunday onward as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoac�n and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP4/EP042025)
2025-06-15 04:55:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 03:00 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 the center of Dalila was located near 17.6, -106.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 10
2025-06-15 04:55:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 150255 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025 ...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 106.1W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 106.1 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected later tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will begin to gradually weaken later tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoac�n and Guerrero through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics