je.st
news
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-06-15 10:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 040 WTPZ44 KNHC 150846 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 285/12 knots. A turn toward the west is expected during the next day or so, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler waters. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and is close to the track consensus aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later today as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then likely as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoac�n and Guerrero through this morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today while the system moves farther offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2025-06-15 10:45:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 400 FOPZ14 KNHC 150844 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0900 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 19(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/PASCH [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP4/EP042025)
2025-06-15 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA MOVING WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM MST Sun Jun 15 the center of Dalila was located near 18.0, -107.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics