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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 12
2025-06-15 16:34:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila's satellite appearance has degraded since the previous advisory. Cloud tops have been warming, and what convection remains is displaced to the southwest. First-light visible imagery showed that the system has decoupled with the low-level center exposed due to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Given the current satellite presentation, subjective and objective intensity estimates have started to drop-off, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Dalila is moving towards the west-northwest, at an estimated 295/8 kt. As Dalila continues to weaken and becomes a shallower vortex, a turn towards the west is expected within the low-level wind flow. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, near the consensus aids. The storm will continue to weaken today within a cooler SSTs and a drier, more stable environment. Dalila is already struggling to produce convection and should become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight. The latest intensity forecast shows steady weakening and the system dissipating in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 12
2025-06-15 16:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 151434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 70SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS....135NE 150SE 105SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.8W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2025-06-15 16:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 151434 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 1500 UTC SUN JUN 15 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 14(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics