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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 6
2025-06-14 04:56:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 040 WTPZ44 KNHC 140255 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 PM CST Fri Jun 13 2025 The satellite presentation of Dalila has improved a bit this evening, with the latest images showing an increase in deep convection around the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 knots, while the objective estimates ranged from 32 to 40 knots. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 knots for this advisory. Dalila is now heading toward the northwest, or 315/10 knots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so as the system moves along the southern periphery of a building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A gradual turn toward the west is expected Saturday night and Sunday, as Dalila moves over cooler water and becomes increasingly steered by the low-level trade wind flow. A westward motion is then forecast to continue through dissipation on Tuesday, and this may be generous as Dalila may not survive that long. The latest track forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory, in line with the latest consensus model trends. There is a limited window for Dalila to strengthen as it will remain over warm water and within light to moderate easterly shear for around 24 hours. The forecast calls for some strengthening during this time, but the peak intensity has been nudged slightly lower to better align with the latest intensity model trends. Beyond 36 hours, the system will move over much cooler water, and steady weakening is forecast with Dalila expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 60 hours, and possibly sooner than that. The latest intensity forecast is generally on the high end of the intensity guidance through 36 hours, then is roughly in the middle of the pack through storm dissipation. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoac�n, and Colima through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area tonight and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.2N 103.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.1N 106.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 18.1N 111.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Reinhart [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2025-06-14 04:55:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 216 FOPZ14 KNHC 140255 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042025 0300 UTC SAT JUN 14 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 21 19(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MANZANILLO 34 15 31(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) L CARDENAS 34 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 100W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/REINHART [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP4/EP042025)
2025-06-14 04:55:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA... As of 9:00 PM CST Fri Jun 13 the center of Dalila was located near 15.2, -103.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics