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Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 8
2025-06-14 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 251 WTPZ44 KNHC 141434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 900 AM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 Dalila continues to show signs of strengthening, with deep convection bursting over the low-level center, and curved banding features near the coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a fairly large range of satellite intensity estimates this morning from 45 to 65 kt. Given the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. A scatterometer pass is scheduled over the system around 16Z, which may give a better estimate of surface winds. The storm is currently moving northwestward at an estimated 305/10 kt. A mid-level ridge is building westward over northern Mexico, which should cause Dalila to gradually turn west-northwestward later today. As the system begins to weaken into a shallower vortex on Sunday, Dalila will turn more westward within the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC forecast is near the previous one, and lies near the latest simple and corrected consensus aids. Dalila may be nearing peak intensity, with only about 6 to 12 h left within a favorable environment. Thus, the NHC forecast shows slight strengthening today, with a peak intensity of 55 kt. Along the forecast track, Dalila will move over much cooler SSTs tonight and begin to enter a drier, more stable airmass. This will lead to steady weakening, and eventually the system will struggle to produce convection. The NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one, however now shows the system becoming a remnant low in 48 h, although this could occur sooner. By day 4, models depict the remnant low dissipating into an open trough. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoac�n and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.5N 104.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.3N 106.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.1N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 18.2N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 18.2N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
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