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Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 11a
2025-06-15 13:41:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 151141 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 500 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 ...DALILA MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 107.4W ABOUT 215 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all Tropical Storm Warnings for coastal southwestern Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 107.4 West. Dalila is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected during the next couple days, as Dalila moves farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low tonight or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected across portions of the Mexican states of Michoac�n and Guerrero this morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches near the coast. Any instances of flash flooding and mudslides should decrease later today. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Gusty winds are possible along the coast of southwestern Mexico this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Kelly [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics
2025-06-15 11:22:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 08:51:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Jun 2025 09:22:11 GMT [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 11
2025-06-15 10:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 040 WTPZ44 KNHC 150846 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 200 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65 knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from 45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots. Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 285/12 knots. A turn toward the west is expected during the next day or so, as Dalila is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then forecast through dissipation as Dalila moves over much cooler waters. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a post-tropical remnant low in a day or so, and dissipating by Tuesday. The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous advisory, and is close to the track consensus aids. Dalila should begin to weaken later today as some drier mid-level air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More steady weakening is then likely as the system moves over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoac�n and Guerrero through this morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area during the next few hours. Winds will diminish today while the system moves farther offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 18.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.3N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.4N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 17.8N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Pasch [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics