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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 14

2025-06-19 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 464 WTPZ45 KNHC 192032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick continues to rapidly weaken as it moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico. The inner core has now nearly completely collapsed, and the overall convective pattern has become quite ragged. Based on the degraded appearance and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, making Erick a tropical storm. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as Erick continues northwestward. The storm is expected to dissipate over the mountains in southwestern Mexico tonight. Even though Erick is no longer a hurricane, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]


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