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Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 14
2025-06-19 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 464 WTPZ45 KNHC 192032 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 Erick continues to rapidly weaken as it moves farther inland over the rugged terrain of Mexico. The inner core has now nearly completely collapsed, and the overall convective pattern has become quite ragged. Based on the degraded appearance and decreasing satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, making Erick a tropical storm. Continued rapid weakening is forecast as Erick continues northwestward. The storm is expected to dissipate over the mountains in southwestern Mexico tonight. Even though Erick is no longer a hurricane, heavy rains will linger over portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through tonight. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Southwest Mexico mainly through tonight. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 17.4N 99.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 18.3N 101.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-19 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... As of 3:00 PM CST Thu Jun 19 the center of Erick was located near 17.4, -99.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 14
2025-06-19 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 601 WTPZ35 KNHC 192032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 300 PM CST Thu Jun 19 2025 ...ERICK WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 99.7W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings east of Punta Maldonado and downgraded the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Acapulco to Punta Maldonado. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 99.7 West. Erick is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Erick will likely dissipate tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Erick will produce additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches of rainfall mainly in the state of Guerrero with storm totals of 16 inches possible. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across the states of Michoacan and Oaxaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur for a few more hours in the warning area. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to gradually subside through tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico through the evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics