je.st
news
Tropical Storm Erick Forecast Discussion Number 4
2025-06-17 16:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 472 WTPZ45 KNHC 171445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Erick Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 Erick's structure continues to show signs of organization, with a partial 0819 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass possibly showing the initial development of an inner core. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt, and the latest objective ADT estimate is just over 40 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. Erick appears to have slowed down a bit and is moving west-northwestward (300 degrees) at 8 kt. The storm is reaching the western extent of a mid-level ridge to the north, with a mid-/upper-level trough located over northern Mexico. These features should cause Erick to turn northwestward later today, with that trajectory continuing for the next 3 days. Speed-wise, the cyclone is likely to move at its slowest (around 6 kt) this evening but then gradually accelerate during the next several days. Although the models are in good agreement on the general track of Erick, the storm's parallel trajectory to the coast of Mexico will play an important role in exactly which areas receive the most significant wind and surge impacts. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged westward, and generally lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. The environment appears ideal for rapid strengthening. Vertical shear is expected to be very low, with the cyclone moving over waters of around 29 degrees Celsius and within a moist mid-level environment of around 80 percent relative humidity. As a result of these conditions, Rapid intensification (RI) indices are rather high, particular for the 36- and 48-hour periods. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows RI occurring while Erick approaches the coast of southern Mexico, with a 48-hour intensity just below major hurricane strength. Despite this increase in the forecast intensity, there are still a few models (including the normally skillful HCCA aid) that show Erick reaching major hurricane strength, and additional upward adjustments in the forecast could be required later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erick is expected to rapidly intensify before reaching the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for portions of the coast of Oaxaca. A hurricane watch is in effect for portions of the Guerrero coast. 2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life threatening flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in areas of onshore winds. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 12.3N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 12.8N 94.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 13.6N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 97.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.0N 98.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 20/0000Z 17.5N 100.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/1200Z 18.8N 102.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg/Mora [ more ]
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Summary for Tropical Storm Erick (EP5/EP052025)
2025-06-17 16:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OAXACA COAST... As of 9:00 AM CST Tue Jun 17 the center of Erick was located near 12.3, -94.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph. [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Erick Public Advisory Number 4
2025-06-17 16:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 495 WTPZ35 KNHC 171445 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025 900 AM CST Tue Jun 17 2025 ...ERICK FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OAXACA COAST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 94.1W ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado. A Hurricane Watch has been issued west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued east of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco * East of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Watches and warnings may be extended westward along the coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Erick. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 94.1 West. Erick is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later today, followed by a faster northwestward motion Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and move inland or be near the coast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Erick is expected to become a hurricane by tonight or early Wednesday. Erick is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Erick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area Wednesday night and Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Wednesday and Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Erick are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Berg/Mora [ more ]
Category: Transportation and Logistics